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Montekarlo

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Montekarlo

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Montekarlo

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La Note Bleue. Restaurant La Piazza. Ristorante La Romantica. Quantum Monte Carlo , and more specifically diffusion Monte Carlo methods can also be interpreted as a mean field particle Monte Carlo approximation of Feynman — Kac path integrals.

Resampled or Reconfiguration Monte Carlo methods for estimating ground state energies of quantum systems in reduced matrix models is due to Jack H.

Hetherington in [28] In molecular chemistry, the use of genetic heuristic-like particle methodologies a.

Rosenbluth and Arianna W. The use of Sequential Monte Carlo in advanced signal processing and Bayesian inference is more recent.

It was in , that Gordon et al. The authors named their algorithm 'the bootstrap filter', and demonstrated that compared to other filtering methods, their bootstrap algorithm does not require any assumption about that state-space or the noise of the system.

Particle filters were also developed in signal processing in — by P. Del Moral, J. Noyer, G. Rigal, and G. From to , all the publications on Sequential Monte Carlo methodologies, including the pruning and resample Monte Carlo methods introduced in computational physics and molecular chemistry, present natural and heuristic-like algorithms applied to different situations without a single proof of their consistency, nor a discussion on the bias of the estimates and on genealogical and ancestral tree based algorithms.

The mathematical foundations and the first rigorous analysis of these particle algorithms were written by Pierre Del Moral in Del Moral, A.

Guionnet and L. There is no consensus on how Monte Carlo should be defined. For example, Ripley [48] defines most probabilistic modeling as stochastic simulation , with Monte Carlo being reserved for Monte Carlo integration and Monte Carlo statistical tests.

Sawilowsky [49] distinguishes between a simulation , a Monte Carlo method, and a Monte Carlo simulation: a simulation is a fictitious representation of reality, a Monte Carlo method is a technique that can be used to solve a mathematical or statistical problem, and a Monte Carlo simulation uses repeated sampling to obtain the statistical properties of some phenomenon or behavior.

Kalos and Whitlock [50] point out that such distinctions are not always easy to maintain. For example, the emission of radiation from atoms is a natural stochastic process.

It can be simulated directly, or its average behavior can be described by stochastic equations that can themselves be solved using Monte Carlo methods.

The main idea behind this method is that the results are computed based on repeated random sampling and statistical analysis.

The Monte Carlo simulation is, in fact, random experimentations, in the case that, the results of these experiments are not well known.

Monte Carlo simulations are typically characterized by many unknown parameters, many of which are difficult to obtain experimentally. The only quality usually necessary to make good simulations is for the pseudo-random sequence to appear "random enough" in a certain sense.

What this means depends on the application, but typically they should pass a series of statistical tests. Testing that the numbers are uniformly distributed or follow another desired distribution when a large enough number of elements of the sequence are considered is one of the simplest and most common ones.

Sawilowsky lists the characteristics of a high-quality Monte Carlo simulation: [49]. Pseudo-random number sampling algorithms are used to transform uniformly distributed pseudo-random numbers into numbers that are distributed according to a given probability distribution.

Low-discrepancy sequences are often used instead of random sampling from a space as they ensure even coverage and normally have a faster order of convergence than Monte Carlo simulations using random or pseudorandom sequences.

Methods based on their use are called quasi-Monte Carlo methods. In an effort to assess the impact of random number quality on Monte Carlo simulation outcomes, astrophysical researchers tested cryptographically-secure pseudorandom numbers generated via Intel's RDRAND instruction set, as compared to those derived from algorithms, like the Mersenne Twister , in Monte Carlo simulations of radio flares from brown dwarfs.

No statistically significant difference was found between models generated with typical pseudorandom number generators and RDRAND for trials consisting of the generation of 10 7 random numbers.

A Monte Carlo method simulation is defined as any method that utilizes sequences of random numbers to perform the simulation. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to many topics including quantum chromodynamics , cancer radiation therapy, traffic flow, stellar evolution and VLSI design.

All these simulations require the use of random numbers and therefore pseudorandom number generators , which makes creating random-like numbers very important.

If a square enclosed a circle and a point were randomly chosen inside the square the point would either lie inside the circle or outside it.

If the process were repeated many times, the ratio of the random points that lie inside the circle to the total number of random points in the square would approximate the ratio of the area of the circle to the area of the square.

From this we can estimate pi, as shown in the Python code below utilizing a SciPy package to generate pseudorandom numbers with the MT algorithm.

There are ways of using probabilities that are definitely not Monte Carlo simulations — for example, deterministic modeling using single-point estimates.

Each uncertain variable within a model is assigned a "best guess" estimate. Scenarios such as best, worst, or most likely case for each input variable are chosen and the results recorded.

By contrast, Monte Carlo simulations sample from a probability distribution for each variable to produce hundreds or thousands of possible outcomes.

The results are analyzed to get probabilities of different outcomes occurring. The samples in such regions are called "rare events". Monte Carlo methods are especially useful for simulating phenomena with significant uncertainty in inputs and systems with many coupled degrees of freedom.

Areas of application include:. Monte Carlo methods are very important in computational physics , physical chemistry , and related applied fields, and have diverse applications from complicated quantum chromodynamics calculations to designing heat shields and aerodynamic forms as well as in modeling radiation transport for radiation dosimetry calculations.

In astrophysics , they are used in such diverse manners as to model both galaxy evolution [61] and microwave radiation transmission through a rough planetary surface.

Monte Carlo methods are widely used in engineering for sensitivity analysis and quantitative probabilistic analysis in process design. The need arises from the interactive, co-linear and non-linear behavior of typical process simulations.

For example,. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change relies on Monte Carlo methods in probability density function analysis of radiative forcing.

The PDFs are generated based on uncertainties provided in Table 8. The combination of the individual RF agents to derive total forcing over the Industrial Era are done by Monte Carlo simulations and based on the method in Boucher and Haywood PDF of the ERF from surface albedo changes and combined contrails and contrail-induced cirrus are included in the total anthropogenic forcing, but not shown as a separate PDF.

We currently do not have ERF estimates for some forcing mechanisms: ozone, land use, solar, etc. Monte Carlo methods are used in various fields of computational biology , for example for Bayesian inference in phylogeny , or for studying biological systems such as genomes, proteins, [72] or membranes.

Computer simulations allow us to monitor the local environment of a particular molecule to see if some chemical reaction is happening for instance.

Path tracing , occasionally referred to as Monte Carlo ray tracing, renders a 3D scene by randomly tracing samples of possible light paths. Repeated sampling of any given pixel will eventually cause the average of the samples to converge on the correct solution of the rendering equation , making it one of the most physically accurate 3D graphics rendering methods in existence.

The standards for Monte Carlo experiments in statistics were set by Sawilowsky. Monte Carlo methods are also a compromise between approximate randomization and permutation tests.

An approximate randomization test is based on a specified subset of all permutations which entails potentially enormous housekeeping of which permutations have been considered.

The Monte Carlo approach is based on a specified number of randomly drawn permutations exchanging a minor loss in precision if a permutation is drawn twice—or more frequently—for the efficiency of not having to track which permutations have already been selected.

Monte Carlo methods have been developed into a technique called Monte-Carlo tree search that is useful for searching for the best move in a game.

Possible moves are organized in a search tree and many random simulations are used to estimate the long-term potential of each move.

A black box simulator represents the opponent's moves. The net effect, over the course of many simulated games, is that the value of a node representing a move will go up or down, hopefully corresponding to whether or not that node represents a good move.

Monte Carlo methods are also efficient in solving coupled integral differential equations of radiation fields and energy transport, and thus these methods have been used in global illumination computations that produce photo-realistic images of virtual 3D models, with applications in video games , architecture , design , computer generated films , and cinematic special effects.

Each simulation can generate as many as ten thousand data points that are randomly distributed based upon provided variables. Ultimately this serves as a practical application of probability distribution in order to provide the swiftest and most expedient method of rescue, saving both lives and resources.

Monte Carlo simulation is commonly used to evaluate the risk and uncertainty that would affect the outcome of different decision options.

Monte Carlo simulation allows the business risk analyst to incorporate the total effects of uncertainty in variables like sales volume, commodity and labour prices, interest and exchange rates, as well as the effect of distinct risk events like the cancellation of a contract or the change of a tax law.

Monte Carlo methods in finance are often used to evaluate investments in projects at a business unit or corporate level, or other financial valuations.

They can be used to model project schedules , where simulations aggregate estimates for worst-case, best-case, and most likely durations for each task to determine outcomes for the overall project.

A Monte Carlo approach was used for evaluating the potential value of a proposed program to help female petitioners in Wisconsin be successful in their applications for harassment and domestic abuse restraining orders.

It was proposed to help women succeed in their petitions by providing them with greater advocacy thereby potentially reducing the risk of rape and physical assault.

However, there were many variables in play that could not be estimated perfectly, including the effectiveness of restraining orders, the success rate of petitioners both with and without advocacy, and many others.

The study ran trials that varied these variables to come up with an overall estimate of the success level of the proposed program as a whole.

In general, the Monte Carlo methods are used in mathematics to solve various problems by generating suitable random numbers see also Random number generation and observing that fraction of the numbers that obeys some property or properties.

The method is useful for obtaining numerical solutions to problems too complicated to solve analytically.

The most common application of the Monte Carlo method is Monte Carlo integration. Deterministic numerical integration algorithms work well in a small number of dimensions, but encounter two problems when the functions have many variables.

First, the number of function evaluations needed increases rapidly with the number of dimensions. For example, if 10 evaluations provide adequate accuracy in one dimension, then 10 points are needed for dimensions—far too many to be computed.

This is called the curse of dimensionality. Second, the boundary of a multidimensional region may be very complicated, so it may not be feasible to reduce the problem to an iterated integral.

Monte Carlo methods provide a way out of this exponential increase in computation time. As long as the function in question is reasonably well-behaved , it can be estimated by randomly selecting points in dimensional space, and taking some kind of average of the function values at these points.

A refinement of this method, known as importance sampling in statistics, involves sampling the points randomly, but more frequently where the integrand is large.

To do this precisely one would have to already know the integral, but one can approximate the integral by an integral of a similar function or use adaptive routines such as stratified sampling , recursive stratified sampling , adaptive umbrella sampling [94] [95] or the VEGAS algorithm.

A similar approach, the quasi-Monte Carlo method , uses low-discrepancy sequences. These sequences "fill" the area better and sample the most important points more frequently, so quasi-Monte Carlo methods can often converge on the integral more quickly.

Another class of methods for sampling points in a volume is to simulate random walks over it Markov chain Monte Carlo.

Another powerful and very popular application for random numbers in numerical simulation is in numerical optimization.

The problem is to minimize or maximize functions of some vector that often has many dimensions. Many problems can be phrased in this way: for example, a computer chess program could be seen as trying to find the set of, say, 10 moves that produces the best evaluation function at the end.

In the traveling salesman problem the goal is to minimize distance traveled. There are also applications to engineering design, such as multidisciplinary design optimization.

It has been applied with quasi-one-dimensional models to solve particle dynamics problems by efficiently exploring large configuration space.

Reference [97] is a comprehensive review of many issues related to simulation and optimization. The traveling salesman problem is what is called a conventional optimization problem.

That is, all the facts distances between each destination point needed to determine the optimal path to follow are known with certainty and the goal is to run through the possible travel choices to come up with the one with the lowest total distance.

However, let's assume that instead of wanting to minimize the total distance traveled to visit each desired destination, we wanted to minimize the total time needed to reach each destination.

This goes beyond conventional optimization since travel time is inherently uncertain traffic jams, time of day, etc. As a result, to determine our optimal path we would want to use simulation - optimization to first understand the range of potential times it could take to go from one point to another represented by a probability distribution in this case rather than a specific distance and then optimize our travel decisions to identify the best path to follow taking that uncertainty into account.

Probabilistic formulation of inverse problems leads to the definition of a probability distribution in the model space. This probability distribution combines prior information with new information obtained by measuring some observable parameters data.

As, in the general case, the theory linking data with model parameters is nonlinear, the posterior probability in the model space may not be easy to describe it may be multimodal, some moments may not be defined, etc.

When analyzing an inverse problem, obtaining a maximum likelihood model is usually not sufficient, as we normally also wish to have information on the resolution power of the data.

In the general case we may have many model parameters, and an inspection of the marginal probability densities of interest may be impractical, or even useless.

But it is possible to pseudorandomly generate a large collection of models according to the posterior probability distribution and to analyze and display the models in such a way that information on the relative likelihoods of model properties is conveyed to the spectator.

This can be accomplished by means of an efficient Monte Carlo method, even in cases where no explicit formula for the a priori distribution is available.

The best-known importance sampling method, the Metropolis algorithm, can be generalized, and this gives a method that allows analysis of possibly highly nonlinear inverse problems with complex a priori information and data with an arbitrary noise distribution.

Method's general philosophy was discussed by Elishakoff [] and Grüne-Yanoff and Weirich []. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.

Not to be confused with Monte Carlo algorithm. Probabilistic problem-solving algorithm. Fluid dynamics. Monte Carlo methods. See also: Monte Carlo method in statistical physics.

Main article: Monte Carlo tree search. See also: Computer Go. See also: Monte Carlo methods in finance , Quasi-Monte Carlo methods in finance , Monte Carlo methods for option pricing , Stochastic modelling insurance , and Stochastic asset model.

Main article: Monte Carlo integration. Main article: Stochastic optimization. Mathematics portal. October The Journal of Chemical Physics.

Bibcode : JChPh.. Bibcode : Bimka.. Journal of the American Statistical Association. Nonlinear Markov processes. Cambridge Univ. Mean field simulation for Monte Carlo integration.

Xiphias Press. Retrieved Bibcode : PNAS LIX : — Methodos : 45— Methodos : — Feynman—Kac formulae. Genealogical and interacting particle approximations.

Probability and Its Applications. Lecture Notes in Mathematics. Berlin: Springer. Stochastic Processes and Their Applications.

Bibcode : PhRvE.. Archived from the original PDF on Bibcode : PhRvL.. Bibcode : PhRvA.. April Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics.

Markov Processes and Related Fields. Del Moral, G. September Convention DRET no. Studies on: Filtering, optimal control, and maximum likelihood estimation.

Research report no. Application to Non Linear Filtering Problems". Probability Theory and Related Fields. Bibcode : AnIHP.. Vehicle System Dynamics.

Bibcode : VSD The Astrophysical Journal. Bibcode : ApJ Physics in Medicine and Biology. Bibcode : PMB The Monte Carlo Method. Engineering Applications.

Journal of Computational Physics. Bibcode : JCoPh. Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering. Bibcode : arXivN. Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting.

Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting. Cambridge University Press. Retrieved 2 March Journal of Urban Economics.

Retrieved 28 October

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Since business and finance are plagued by random variables, Monte Carlo simulations have a vast array of potential applications in these fields.

Analysts use them to assess the risk that an entity will default, and to analyze derivatives such as options.

Insurers and oil well drillers also use them. Monte Carlo simulations have countless applications outside of business and finance, such as in meteorology, astronomy, and particle physics.

The technique was first developed by Stanislaw Ulam, a mathematician who worked on the Manhattan Project. He became interested in plotting the outcome of each of these games in order to observe their distribution and determine the probability of winning.

After he shared his idea with John Von Neumann, the two collaborated to develop the Monte Carlo simulation. The basis of a Monte Carlo simulation is that the probability of varying outcomes cannot be determined because of random variable interference.

Therefore, a Monte Carlo simulation focuses on constantly repeating random samples to achieve certain results. A Monte Carlo simulation takes the variable that has uncertainty and assigns it a random value.

The model is then run and a result is provided. This process is repeated again and again while assigning the variable in question with many different values.

Once the simulation is complete, the results are averaged together to provide an estimate. One way to employ a Monte Carlo simulation is to model possible movements of asset prices using Excel or a similar program.

By analyzing historical price data, you can determine the drift, standard deviation , variance , and average price movement of a security.

These are the building blocks of a Monte Carlo simulation. To project one possible price trajectory, use the historical price data of the asset to generate a series of periodic daily returns using the natural logarithm note that this equation differs from the usual percentage change formula :.

P, and VAR. P functions on the entire resulting series to obtain the average daily return, standard deviation, and variance inputs, respectively.

The drift is equal to:. Alternatively, drift can be set to 0; this choice reflects a certain theoretical orientation, but the difference will not be huge, at least for shorter time frames.

She factors into a distribution of reinvestment rates , inflation rates, asset class returns, tax rates , and even possible lifespans.

The result is a distribution of portfolio sizes with the probabilities of supporting the client's desired spending needs.

The analyst next uses the Monte Carlo simulation to determine the expected value and distribution of a portfolio at the owner's retirement date.

The simulation allows the analyst to take a multi-period view and factor in path dependency ; the portfolio value and asset allocation at every period depend on the returns and volatility in the preceding period.

The client's different spending rates and lifespan can be factored in to determine the probability that the client will run out of funds the probability of ruin or longevity risk before their death.

A client's risk and return profile is the most important factor influencing portfolio management decisions.

The client's required returns are a function of her retirement and spending goals; her risk profile is determined by her ability and willingness to take risks.

More often than not, the desired return and the risk profile of a client are not in sync with each other. For example, the level of risk acceptable to a client may make it impossible or very difficult to attain the desired return.

Moreover, a minimum amount may be needed before retirement to achieve the client's goals, but the client's lifestyle would not allow for the savings or the client may be reluctant to change it.

Let's consider an example of a young working couple who works very hard and has a lavish lifestyle including expensive holidays every year.

None of the above alternatives higher savings or increased risk are acceptable to the client. Thus, the analyst factors in other adjustments before running the simulation again.

The resulting distribution shows that the desired portfolio value is achievable by increasing allocation to small-cap stock by only 8 percent.

With the available insight, the analyst advises the clients to delay retirement and decrease their spending marginally, to which the couple agrees.

A Monte Carlo simulation allows analysts and advisors to convert investment chances into choices. Another great disadvantage is that the Monte Carlo simulation tends to underestimate the probability of extreme bear events like a financial crisis.

It is, however, a useful tool for advisors. Financial Analysis. Tools for Fundamental Analysis. Retirement Planning. Monte Carlo methods provide a way out of this exponential increase in computation time.

As long as the function in question is reasonably well-behaved , it can be estimated by randomly selecting points in dimensional space, and taking some kind of average of the function values at these points.

A refinement of this method, known as importance sampling in statistics, involves sampling the points randomly, but more frequently where the integrand is large.

To do this precisely one would have to already know the integral, but one can approximate the integral by an integral of a similar function or use adaptive routines such as stratified sampling , recursive stratified sampling , adaptive umbrella sampling [94] [95] or the VEGAS algorithm.

A similar approach, the quasi-Monte Carlo method , uses low-discrepancy sequences. These sequences "fill" the area better and sample the most important points more frequently, so quasi-Monte Carlo methods can often converge on the integral more quickly.

Another class of methods for sampling points in a volume is to simulate random walks over it Markov chain Monte Carlo. Another powerful and very popular application for random numbers in numerical simulation is in numerical optimization.

The problem is to minimize or maximize functions of some vector that often has many dimensions. Many problems can be phrased in this way: for example, a computer chess program could be seen as trying to find the set of, say, 10 moves that produces the best evaluation function at the end.

In the traveling salesman problem the goal is to minimize distance traveled. There are also applications to engineering design, such as multidisciplinary design optimization.

It has been applied with quasi-one-dimensional models to solve particle dynamics problems by efficiently exploring large configuration space.

Reference [97] is a comprehensive review of many issues related to simulation and optimization.

The traveling salesman problem is what is called a conventional optimization problem. That is, all the facts distances between each destination point needed to determine the optimal path to follow are known with certainty and the goal is to run through the possible travel choices to come up with the one with the lowest total distance.

However, let's assume that instead of wanting to minimize the total distance traveled to visit each desired destination, we wanted to minimize the total time needed to reach each destination.

This goes beyond conventional optimization since travel time is inherently uncertain traffic jams, time of day, etc. As a result, to determine our optimal path we would want to use simulation - optimization to first understand the range of potential times it could take to go from one point to another represented by a probability distribution in this case rather than a specific distance and then optimize our travel decisions to identify the best path to follow taking that uncertainty into account.

Probabilistic formulation of inverse problems leads to the definition of a probability distribution in the model space.

This probability distribution combines prior information with new information obtained by measuring some observable parameters data.

As, in the general case, the theory linking data with model parameters is nonlinear, the posterior probability in the model space may not be easy to describe it may be multimodal, some moments may not be defined, etc.

When analyzing an inverse problem, obtaining a maximum likelihood model is usually not sufficient, as we normally also wish to have information on the resolution power of the data.

In the general case we may have many model parameters, and an inspection of the marginal probability densities of interest may be impractical, or even useless.

But it is possible to pseudorandomly generate a large collection of models according to the posterior probability distribution and to analyze and display the models in such a way that information on the relative likelihoods of model properties is conveyed to the spectator.

This can be accomplished by means of an efficient Monte Carlo method, even in cases where no explicit formula for the a priori distribution is available.

The best-known importance sampling method, the Metropolis algorithm, can be generalized, and this gives a method that allows analysis of possibly highly nonlinear inverse problems with complex a priori information and data with an arbitrary noise distribution.

Method's general philosophy was discussed by Elishakoff [] and Grüne-Yanoff and Weirich []. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.

Not to be confused with Monte Carlo algorithm. Probabilistic problem-solving algorithm. Fluid dynamics.

Monte Carlo methods. See also: Monte Carlo method in statistical physics. Main article: Monte Carlo tree search. See also: Computer Go.

See also: Monte Carlo methods in finance , Quasi-Monte Carlo methods in finance , Monte Carlo methods for option pricing , Stochastic modelling insurance , and Stochastic asset model.

Main article: Monte Carlo integration. Main article: Stochastic optimization. Mathematics portal. October The Journal of Chemical Physics.

Bibcode : JChPh.. Bibcode : Bimka.. Journal of the American Statistical Association. Nonlinear Markov processes.

Cambridge Univ. Mean field simulation for Monte Carlo integration. Xiphias Press. Retrieved Bibcode : PNAS LIX : — Methodos : 45— Methodos : — Feynman—Kac formulae.

Genealogical and interacting particle approximations. Probability and Its Applications. Lecture Notes in Mathematics.

Berlin: Springer. Stochastic Processes and Their Applications. Bibcode : PhRvE.. Archived from the original PDF on Bibcode : PhRvL..

Bibcode : PhRvA.. April Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics. Markov Processes and Related Fields. Del Moral, G. September Convention DRET no.

Studies on: Filtering, optimal control, and maximum likelihood estimation. Research report no. Application to Non Linear Filtering Problems".

Probability Theory and Related Fields. Bibcode : AnIHP.. Vehicle System Dynamics. Bibcode : VSD The Astrophysical Journal.

Bibcode : ApJ Physics in Medicine and Biology. Bibcode : PMB The Monte Carlo Method. Engineering Applications. Journal of Computational Physics.

Bibcode : JCoPh. Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering. Bibcode : arXivN. Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting.

Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting. Cambridge University Press. Retrieved 2 March Journal of Urban Economics. Retrieved 28 October Archived from the original on M; Van Den Herik, H.

Jaap Parallel Monte-Carlo Tree Search. Lecture Notes in Computer Science. Computers and Games. Bibcode : LNCS. Dice Insights. Stone; Thomas M.

Kratzke; John R. Numerical Methods in Finance. Springer Proceedings in Mathematics. Springer Berlin Heidelberg. Handbook of Monte Carlo Methods.

Bibcode : PLoSO.. State Bar of Wisconsin. Archived from the original PDF on 6 November Bibcode : JCoPh.. The Journal of Physical Chemistry B.

Anderson, Herbert L. Los Alamos Science. Benov, Dobriyan M. Monte Carlo Methods and Applications. Baeurle, Stephan A. Journal of Mathematical Chemistry.

Berg, Bernd A. Hackensack, NJ: World Scientific.

Monaco Monte Carlo. Mehr; Mehr. Mehr. Hier finden Sie. Wandfliesen; Bodenmosaiken; Wandbordüren; Bodenfliesen (Feinsteinzeug). Über die Kollektion. Verbringen Sie einen unvergesslichen Aufenthalt in Monaco mit Monte Carlo Société des Bains de Mer. Der Aufenthalt in den besten Hotels des Fürstentums,​.

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